Good morning. Let us first take a look at the international markets.
In the early hours of this morning, the three major US stock indices closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, the Nasdaq plunged 1.25%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.47%. The storage and semiconductor sectors tumbled, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closing down 3.39%. Intel dropped more than 5%, while SanDisk, Micron Technology, and SK Hynix each fell over 4%. AMD and Marvell Technology declined more than 3%. Most large-cap tech stocks fell. Broadcom and SpaceX dropped over 4%, Nvidia fell nearly 3%, Amazon lost more than 2%, and Microsoft slipped over 1%, while Apple gained more than 1%. Oracle shares closed down 5.6%, marking their largest single-day decline since July 16.
On the news front, according to a report by the UK's Financial Times, investor documents recently released by OpenAI show that its annualized revenue for the period ending in late September was "close to $50 billion," far below the $70 billion expectation widely cited by the market at the end of last month. The report noted that this massive revenue expectation gap could deal a blow to market optimism about AI demand growth.
In addition, according to CCTV News, US President Trump posted on social media on the 8th that the United States and Iran are engaged in "productive" consultations, and that the US will not launch an attack on Iran before the congressional midterm elections. Trump stated in his post that despite Iran's economic and military situation being "very bad," and despite the US continuing its blockade and large amounts of oil being transported through the Strait of Hormuz, "we will not attack Iran at any time before the US midterm elections on November 3." Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the negotiation process between Iran and the US is still ongoing, with all parties exchanging information through mediators. Iran has put forward its own proposal, namely "reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days," and has heard the US response to this proposal. Iran is currently reviewing these opinions and will respond within a few days.
After Trump's social media post, US Treasury yields fell rapidly, and WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures prices dived in the short term. As of the close, WTI crude oil futures rose 3.64%, and Brent crude oil futures rose 4.07%. COMEX gold futures rose 0.43% to $4,158.3 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 1.43% to $59.43 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies Plunge Across the Board, Nearly 200,000 Liquidated
Last night and into this morning, cryptocurrencies plunged across the board. According to CoinGlass data, in the past 24 hours, a total of 191,800 people worldwide were liquidated, with liquidation amounts approaching $1.2 billion. Some analysts said this round of forced liquidations was mainly concentrated in long positions, meaning traders betting on price increases. Dan Khus, chief analyst at LVRG Research, said the current cryptocurrency market movement is more like a "leverage washout" rather than a clear downtrend. However, the synchronized weakening of major cryptocurrency assets still reflects that market risk appetite is cooling.
It is worth noting that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech on Thursday that if economic data meets expectations, he expects the Fed will need to continue raising interest rates to push inflation down faster. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 82.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 17.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through December is 18.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 67.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 13.7%.
Analysts: Energy and Chemical Products Face Correction Risk
On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the domestic energy and chemical sector experienced a major surge. Crude oil futures prices rose sharply, with methanol, PX, liquefied petroleum gas, pure benzene, styrene, and other products hitting their price limits, as bullish sentiment in the sector ran high.
Ye Haiwen, manager of the Energy and Chemical Research Center at Guomao Futures Research Institute, said the core driver of this round of gains in the energy and chemical sector was the sharp strengthening of overseas oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures rising nearly 5% during the holiday, providing catch-up momentum for domestic energy and chemical product prices. The relatively tight fundamentals provided ample momentum for the price increases: methanol port inventories continued to destock, overseas plant operating rates were only 53.7%, and the tight supply pattern continued; PX maintained low inventory levels; and pure benzene, styrene, and other products saw tight supply at the end of September.
Xie Wen, assistant to the director of the Wuchan Zhongda Futures Research Institute, believes that the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, European refined product shortages, and rising international oil prices combined to drive strong gains in crude oil-linked products. Liquid chemicals and solid chemicals showed divergent trends. Among liquid chemicals, products with high correlation to crude oil and low inventories (LPG, methanol, pure benzene) were the first to hit their price limits, with styrene following suit. PX and PTA are in a short-term tight supply-demand balance, with relatively strong prices; ethylene glycol has inventory buildup expectations, with relatively limited price gains.
Regarding inventories, according to Xie Wen, liquid chemical product inventories are low, and near-month contract prices remain strong. Pure benzene and styrene inventories are at lows for the same period in the past five years, and pure benzene port spot supply is scarce. Naphtha supply is tight, and butadiene prices at home and abroad are trending strong. Ethylene glycol inventory buildup is suppressing prices, and negative feedback from downstream may limit the upside for PX and PTA prices.
"On the cost side, global crude oil in-transit inventories and Saudi Arabia's September crude oil exports surged significantly, and the G7 released strategic petroleum reserves. Short-term international oil prices are likely to remain in a high-level oscillation," Xie Wen said.
Looking ahead, Ye Haiwen said the energy and chemical sector's performance remains highly tied to the geopolitical situation. If Middle East conflicts ease, the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices and energy and chemical products will quickly dissipate; if shipping disruptions continue, the cost side will still have support, and the energy and chemical sector will continue to rise, but weak downstream end-user demand will limit its upside. Ye Haiwen reminded traders to be cautious about chasing highs. He believes that products with tight supply-demand such as methanol and pure benzene can be watched for long allocation opportunities on pullbacks; polyester chain products are constrained by negative feedback from end users, with relatively limited price upside, and are best approached with a wait-and-see or range-trading strategy. Beware of pullback risks brought by rapid reversals in market sentiment. Xie Wen suggested focusing on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the actual pace of strategic petroleum reserve releases by various countries.